IN:
Substack. Let’s lead off with the culturally obvious and my obvious bias. I have been here since the beginning when the platform was sparse. 2025 is the year Substack becomes the saturated, fleshy, plump social media platform it has always set out to be. Complaining about that shift is like lamenting that your favorite indie band has a Top 40 hit. They were never going to stay quaint for your pleasure. If you crave a more intimate space online, make one. Maybe even on Substack!
The Ed-fluencer. While the back nine of 2024 was a promising and highly indicative warm-up, established Substack writers are going to proliferate front rows, become more authoritative voices in their fields, and be at the front of the pack for brand collaboration given their unique market positioning: the credibility and polish of an Editor with the economic sway of an influencer. Fat checks that were going to TikTok talent two years ago will see that budget redirected to stickier, more thoughtful content with a longer tail. Content saturation on the platform will spike, making it harder to grow. Legacy media will look to poach writers, acquire newsletter brands, and grant vanity columns.
Paywalls. On that note, audiences will continue to be trained to understand that content creation is work that should be compensated.
“Brand safe.” In the wake of Trump’s re-election, brands will opt to work with the people who present the least risk. Sadly, this country seems to want to go backward, and big brands are spooked about working with someone who might stir up controversy around race, gender, religion, or sexuality. I’m not saying it’s right, but it’s coming. How quickly we forget all the promises we made in 2020.
PR Wars. Because you weren’t brand safe.
People of craft. The proliferation of AI will make more things fast and cheap, rendering handmade and bespoke a luxury. People with finer tastes will seek independent designers and makers to differentiate themselves. Discovery will be an even bigger flex than it already is.
Hedonism.
Cigarettes. On that note, there will be a return to openly hedonistic behavior. People will embrace places that look away, like private clubs and sexy PDRs. We will see more status lighter cases like Juju Vera and Lisa Eisner cranked out and accessories like vintage cigarette cases (full of Capris).
Being home by 9. Hedonistic benders here and there, sure, but mostly, people want to be in bed at a reasonable hour.
IRL. While it’s fun to rot sometimes, agoraphobia isn’t a good look. We must be together again — in the workplace, at dinner, and shopping brick and mortar.
The UES and WASP culture. The Frick, Dorian’s, The Grill, Palm Beach…
Belgians.
New Phoebe Philo. And wearing your Old Celine.
LeSet.
Car purses. I’ve said it before, but I’ll repeat it: in NYC, your purse is your car. Get a big-ass, roomy purse—either a swanky one or the most esoteric fuck-ass tote bag you can excavate.
New Chanel. I hope, I pray. It's a heavy crown for Blazy, but he can wear it
New(er) Bottega. I am confident Lousie Trotter has this one in the bag.
Hand-written notes. It’s time to sit down, break out a pen, and put a stamp on it. A thank you text is so 2023.
MAHA. Groan. Internet ding dongs will continue villainizing widely accepted safe practices like pasteurization and Polo vaccines. Rule of thumb: if someone is trying to sell you one thing by scaring you out of another, it probably deserves a gut check.
Chrome and metallics.
Fragrance wardrobes. For different moods, occasions, and outfits. Layered, studied, and collected.
Pavlovas.
Mah jong.
Purple. Especially lavender.
Clinique. This is a nostalgia brand poised for a comeback.
Minoxidil. For every girlie exhausted by her 18-step hair growth regimen, two more will discover they can buy oral Minoxidil for $5 with insurance and get better results.
Manicures.
Hotels. I don’t want to deal with your lawn guy and his leaf blower showing up at 9 am or having to do the dishes. Give me room service, a bed I don’t have to make, and a good bar downstairs.
The EIP as Influencer. I wrote about this two years ago, but it’s hitting a fever pitch now. Brands like MyTheresa have already nailed this, and more should be following suit — treat your top clients as well or better than the most famous influencer or top editor at the same dinner/experience. And seat everyone together, for God’s sake. I hate it when brands cluster all the VIP customers and then put media/talent at another table, as though the VIP shoppers with a quarter million-lifetime spend don’t know how to behave around Derek Blasberg. Mix it up! I sat with one of Net-a-Porter’s heaviest hitters at FFORME last year, a genuinely epic woman in her 70s with an incredible TV career, hair sprayed to the gods in a Victoria Beckham look. She made my night!
Third places. Member’s clubs, wellness centers, spas, your favorite neighborhood restaurant, and bathhouses. Anywhere you can become a regular.
Peptides, growth factors, and high-tech skincare.
Facial sculpting.
Ghosting the group text.
Blephs.
The Dolomites.
The Library. Did you know there is a place that will let you take books home for free? (Ebooks included.)
Marcelo Hernandez, Daniela Kallmeyer, Terrence O’Connor, Kaitlan Collins, Chloe Fineman, Doechii, Parker Posey, Paige Desorbo, post-Goop Gwyneth, post-RHONY Jenna, anyone dressed by Danielle Goldberg.
Sant Ambroeus power lunches.
Short kings, younger men, and big dumb hunks.
SLC Housewives: Genuinely gripping television! Emmys and Kerastaste for everyone!
Sleep.
SA loyalty.
Nobody having any idea where you are.
Justice that borders revenge.
Putting yourself first. This doesn’t mean that you should become a self-serving monster, but it does mean that you should give yourself a little more attention than you have been. Others will have to manage without you for a tick.
HOLDING STEADY:
Aesthetic medicine. The adage is true that the best work goes undetected, and in places like Manhattan, we think we’ll see even more shrinking lips than we did in 2024. The look will be way more Dr. Devgan than Dr. Ourian. That fatigue with Instagram Face will echo across other major metros, but we’ll see the pendulum swing opposite in more conservative areas.
Fine art as an investment. Though I think collectors will hold on to their centerpieces during a soft market, we’ll see interesting new acquisitions and collectors come onto the scene as galleries loosen their grips to move work.
Bitcoin.
Lasers and peels. Interventions to front-load skincare, high-maintenance work for a low-maintenance every day. Less reliance on makeup as a result, and women continuing to embrace natural, minimal brands like Westman Atelier over noisy looks from brands like MAC.
Gift guides are not going anywhere, babe. They will be bigger and badder next year now that brands see how well they do on Substack.
Ozempic. And other GLP-1s, including the new-to-market Retatrutide this year. This will drive prices down even more.
Field jackets.
Luigi. A hot person who did a bad thing with a very compelling and morally fuzzy court case ahead. If he ever gets out of prison, he will be the toast of New York for exactly one social season.
Voice texting.
Criterion Memberships.
Ranch waters and French 75’s.
Diet Coke.
Hillstone.
Crying in public. A great New York pastime that will never go out of style.
Long meandering walks where you don’t speak to anybody for at least an hour. Resets like these are the foundation of coming up with good ideas.
Making reservations for the first seating.
OUT:
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